PREVIEW: Victoria vs South Australia

Do last week’s contests have any bearing on what might happen at La Trobe? No. Does Victoria having the week’s rest from travelling give the home side any advantage? Probably not. Does playing away from home bear any terrors for the visitors? Certainly not, with their players and management staff well-attuned to the rigours of baseball at elite level.

 

Both states can boast outstanding records in Claxton Shield competition, although South Australia has been in the doldrums for many years and finished an abject last in 2008/09 -  with one win. Victoria has won twenty-one shields, its most recent in 2007. South Australia has won fifteen, its last way way back in 1980 EBR (Even Before Roly). The southerners had limited success in the old ABL and haven’t appeared in a play-off - at all - for nigh on twenty years.

 

Do these comparative records in Claxton Shield mean anything? Nuh, don’t think so. Very few of the current crop of players or management are likely to be carrying any baggage from previous, failed campaigns – even from last year, which is a distant memory, a foreign country for the rejuvenated South Australians under General Manager Pat Kelly and Playing Manager Tony Harris.

 

For commentators on history, it is interesting to note that South Australia has a long-standing record of winning Claxton titles in sequences. They won the first three of the event (1934, 35 and 36) and achieved the three-peat in two other eras – 1959 to1961 and 1969 to 1971. All that success at a time when gay meant happy and pubs closed before midnight – well, certainly in Adelaide.

 

So if the interlopers from the city of churches can pull this one off, it would confirm a baseball resurrection and may be the harbinger of future prospects as the Australian Baseball League moves fully into stride later this year.

 

 

Baseball’s appeal – to some - lies in decimal points. For others – such as former Major League Jim Bouton – statistics are “about as interesting as first-base coaches.” But maybe the numbers can tell us something here, for those looking to get a little wager on the La Trobe University fixture.

 

With a team average of .255 and with only 192 hits in the regular season, South Australia has done minimal damage in offence (remembering, too, that it scored just four runs over three games against the Patriots last week). Neverthless, it has done enough to win through to the Grand Final against an opponent that hit safely 251 times - two and a half per game more on average.

 

One of two imports from the ACT, Michael Collins is “the man” for the visitors, batting .417 for the regular season (25 hits, nineteen RBIs and six home runs). Who could forget his one-man wrecking ball demolition of the Aces in Adelaide a few weeks ago? After him, only Scott Gladstone is hitting over .300 (and he’s been to the plate just eight times).

 

To score enough runs to make the series a contest, South Australia will need plenty from the likes of Mathew Smith (.263, with 26 hits and ten RBIs), Stefan Welch (who has made some errors at the hot corner but is ever-dangerous in batting .253 on 21 hits and twelve RBIs), right-fielder Dan Wilson (.247, with 20 hits and eleven RBIs) and import Ryan Murphy (.247 on 19 hits with sixteen RBIs and three home runs).

 

David Washington adds speed on the basepaths and runs down plenty at centrefield, Ben Wigmore and Angus Roeger are dangerous hitters and Jeremy Cresswell had a decent Semi-Final series with five hits in three games.

 

The visitors scored 131 runs over the regular season, the Victorians 135. Nothing significant there. South Australians struck out 181 times to 142. The visitors cleared the wall fifteen times to seventeen. South Australia received 121 passes and 24 HPBs, Victoria 72 and 18. Maybe the Vics faced more quality pitching during the season - or perhaps there is something else that can be read into this.

 

It may have to do with a more aggressive and proactive Victorian offence that believes in the simple baseball adage of beating up your opponent – when you can - by swinging the bat and scoring more runs.

 

 

With a team hitting average of .314 – the highest in the league – Victoria has had a number of stand-out players in offence. In fact, there has not been a weak link.

 

Matthew Lawman batted .423 on 20 hits and eleven RBIs, Josh Davies has had a super season (.370, with 34 hits and nineteen RBIs), Andrew Russell slugged .348 (32 hits for fifteen RBIs and two home runs), Paul Weichard comes back into the lineup (.342, with 25 hits, fifteen RBIs and two homers), the versatile Elliot Biddle hit .333 (21 hits and seven RBIs), Hayden Dingle collected 21 hits and fourteen RBIs to average .284 - while Grant Karlsen hit a respectable .211 for a specialist catcher (with three home runs). Switch-hitter Brett Tamburrino hit .367 from only thirty at-bats (11 hits, two homers and nine RBIs), superstar Brad Harman is on the roster - albeit with with limited game time - and James Beresford will get better with the bat.

 

On paper at least, the Aces seem a stronger and far more dangerous offensive unit – especially if they can pitch around Collins and Ryan Murphy and give them nothing to tattoo. But they are up against a pitching roster that can certainly cause some issues.

 

Southpaw Paul Mildren has beaten the Aces in both of his starts against them this season. Carding a 2.96 ERA (with five wins and a loss over 45.2 innings of work), Mildren looks the logical starting option in Game One and the person most capable of containing the Aces’ left-handed power hitters.

 

Workhorse Darren Fidge has thrown 50.0 innings for 23 earned runs and an ERA of 4.14. Hurling a great game against the Patriots last week, Texan AA and Independent Leaguer Richard Bartlett already has a win against the Vics and has enjoyed a solid season (4.50 ERA, with four wins and one loss over 26 innings). Big man Dushan Ruzic has had a mixed summer but may yet be a factor in this series (5.80 ERA, with two wins and a loss over 35.2 innings), while Chris Lawson has tossed eleven innings for an ERA of 2.45, Hayden Beard may be asked for more and quality hurler Wayne Ough (6.1 innings for a win) returns after an extended lay-off with injury.

 

The wildcard is the big-hitting Murphy, who surprised everyone by throwing a complete game two-hitter (and banging a home run) against the Patriots after only 1.1 innings of pitching work in the regular season. A repetition of those heroics would be a real bonus for the South Australians. The Canadian-born Murphy has played as a corner-infielder but clearly offers another pitching option for the South Australians.

 

South Australia will be wanting for nothing in their starting rotation and out of the pen. But a cursory look at the Aces pitching rotation also says “quality, quality, quality”. While Casey Jones and Dean Barker are not in the squad, Victoria can boast some of the very best. With six wins and a loss for an ERA of 1.95 over 37 innings, Matthew Blackmore (pictured) has been a revelation. The consummate Adam Blackley has two wins over 24.1 innings for an ERA of 2.59. Waverley teammate Donovan Hendricks (three wins and two losses) had a rugged start to the Claxton summer, but threw a blinder – at short notice – in Perth last time.

 

Shane Lindsay is primed to deliver his fire-balling best after a couple of brief, wayward outings, while the Aces bullpen is looking especially strong with Ross Hipke, Adam Bright, Russell Spear and Elliot Biddle all in form and poised to deliver.

 

 

Very little, thus far, has been mentioned about how the two sides stack up in defence. It’s self-explanatory, really. Sides do not get to Grand Finals of Claxton Shield competition without having fielded a quality defence throughout the season. The Aces made an uncustomarily large number of errors early in the summer but have backed their pitchers ever since. The South Australians have errored just eighteen times to forty-one for the season – a figure that provides a counterbalance to the visitors not having the same degree of offensive potency.

 

With both sides fielding a quality defence, we can expect some real highlights from the likes of Lawman, Harman, Beresford, Davies, Wearne, the speedy Biddle and rightfielder Russell for Victoria and some equally inspiring work from Smith, Cresswell, Washington and Wilson for South Australia.

 

The Grand Final series will be played at La Trobe University in Bundoora. A beautifully-manicured surface with ample parking in a salubrious university setting to the north of the city. Home to the Preston summer and La Trobe University winter baseball clubs, the field provides a natural amphitheatre for viewers.

 

With the sun setting over rightfield, there may be some issues for hitters – for half an hour or so – in the Friday and Saturday night games.

 

If we take the weather forecasts on board, it is likely to be a cool to mild weekend, with the chance of showers. A west to north-westerly breeze on the Friday should not disadvantage the right-handed hitters. Blowing from south to south-easterly on the Saturday – and possibly Sunday – we can expect the wind to be more favourable to right-handed hurlers than to the power hitters.

 

We get the conditions that we get. The better side over the series will win.

 

 

Victoria and South Australia have both done exceptionally well to win through to the Grand Final of the Dominos Claxton Shield series. This summer has been an era of great change in Australian baseball and there have been peripheral issues that have sometimes drawn attention away from the main game – the baseball. Those issues will be sorted and resolved over time – no doubt – and whoever wins this series will savour and recall the victory for a long time, a lifetime to come.

 

We applaud both states for getting to this level. We especially recognise the effort of South Australian management to take the team from being easy beats just twelve months ago to playing off for Aussie baseball's most coveted interstate accolade – the Claxton Shield. But it may just be that the southerners have already run their race. No-one expected them to lead the table for most of the season and not too many expected them to come back from a deficit in a bruising three-game shootout with New South Wales.

 

Their season’s experience can work in one of two ways – it can give a side the buoyancy and the confidence to carry through one more series. Yet it may - especially after last week's climactic finish - produce an unwanted rebound effect after the club has come so far so quickly under sustained pressure.

 

What we do know is this. Both clubs will be heading to the La Trobe ground intent on giving their all and creating their own history. What happened seventy or twenty years, or even one year ago will have no bearing on how this showdown plays out. In the end, as always, it will be the side that collectively gives more over the weekend than the other. It will be the side inspired by the brilliance of individual players – and the side which can minimise its mistakes – that will be the ultimate winner.

 

 

 

In seeking out reasoned and insightful comment, we again turned to the inscrutable Roly for his assistance. Now while the love-struck one has been focused on personal issues of importance, his responses were immediate – and emphatic.

 

Best wishes to both squads for what should be a magnificent series in front of a huge crowd. For those who cannot make it to the ballpark, you can tune in live online to Baseball Radio National to follow the action.